Adobe (apparently) wants the iPad to be about Flash. 3 billion downloads from the app store suggests Flash doesn't matter on the iPhone. It'd probably take 10 minutes to find app store replacements for the games mom plays on the web. That doesn't mean Flash doesn't matter, but I think Adobe needs to pick a different fight.
Adobe’s fear, of course, is that #4 (web sites provide alternatives to Flash) is what will happen. And with good reason, since I think it’s fair to say that we’re seeing this happen already. Flash evangelist Lee Brimelow made his little poster showing what a bunch of Flash-using web sites look like without Flash without actually looking to see how they render on MobileSafari. Ends up a bunch of them, including the porno site, already have iPhone-optimized versions with no blue boxes, and video that plays just fine as straight-up H.264. iPhone visitors to these sites have no idea they’re missing anything because, well, they’re not missing anything. For a few other of the sites Brimelow cited, like Disney and Spongebob Squarepants, there are dedicated native iPhone apps.